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Accomodative Central Banks Boost Cyclical Assets
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Accomodative Central Banks Boost Cyclical Assets
- Beneficial rain drives coffee prices lower.
- Equity rally continues.
- USD Index hits 12-year high – more to come.
The market interpreted Federal Reserve Chair Yellen’s testimony to the Financial Services Committee as dovish, although her comments left the door open the first rate rise to be in June or September. Cyclical assets rallied on the prospect of monetary policy remaining at a loser setting for longer. This week, all eyes will be fixed on the US non-farm payrolls numbers, which will give an indication of the strength of the US labour market and therefore ability of the economy to weather tighter monetary policy.
Commodities
Beneficial rain drives coffee prices lower. Arabica coffee fell 7.9% last week as continued rain in Brazil reversed the price gains coffee saw during an unusually dry period at the beginning of the year. However, those looking for a significantly better crop yield this year are likely to be disappointed, with most of the damage to the coffee bushes having taken place during last year’s drought. Sugar prices fell 4.5% with the rain in Brazil and India awarding its mills a subsidy programme that will allow them to export up to 1.4 million tonnes into the global markets. Palladium rose 4.5% on news that Impala Platinum, plans to trim its operations in South Africa and Zimbabwe. Copper rose 3.0% after the International Copper Study Group reported a widening production deficit in the metal in the year to November 2014.
Equities
Equity rally continues. Equity markets reacted positively to central bank rhetoric. Chair Yellen’s comments were interpreted relatively dovishly, while European Central Bank’s President Draghi’s testimony to the European Parliament boosted confidence in the quantitative easing plan that is set to start this month. German unemployment fell more than market expectations, driving the DAX 2.4% higher. Meanwhile volatility in European stocks fell with the Euro STOXX 50 Volatility Index falling 10.9% in the month. Gold miners gained 2.3% last week, helped by a gold price gain of 0.2%. China A-Shares which began trading again after the New Year festivities, gained 1.2%, aided by the better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data out last week and is likely to trade higher this week after an interest rate cut over the weekend.
Currencies
USD Index hits 12-year high – more to come. We expect that rate differentials will continue to widen with the US as it begins its tightening cycle in mid-2015. While Fed Chair Yellen has indicated that the central bank will be patient in beginning to tighten policy, the improving economic conditions in the US warrant modestly higher rates. The market appears to have taken Yellen’s Congressional testimony as relatively dovish and alongside the recent moderation in growth as a sign that the Fed might delay its first rate hikes until August. However, we feel that the Fed will be pragmatic and if the underlying employment picture continues to be robust, a mid-year rate hike would not be a surprise.
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After one year, BTC ETFs in the US have reached $660B in trading volume; the UK and Hong Kong are making progress in crypto adoption and regulation
The crypto investment journey is shaped by volatility, even in a bull market. Significant longer-term returns are frequently accompanied by substantial short-term drawdowns.
The table below from our research team shows how many Bitcoin drawdowns of 10% or greater there have been since 2010. In this bull cycle, we anticipate similar short-term fluctuations as price discovery unfolds. However, as BTC continues to mature, these drawdowns may be less severe and volatility may continue to come down over time.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from July 21, 2010 to December 31, 2024).
Market Highlights | Jan 06 2025 – Jan 12 2025
One-year anniversary US bitcoin ETFs
• Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a total trading volume of $660 billion in the last 12 months, with $36.2 billion in total net inflows.
• The unprecedented success of these products underscores the important role of ETFs in institutional adoption and price action throughout 2024.
Hong Kong sets up blockchain “guide” for banks
• Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority set up a “supervisory incubator” to help banks manage risks with blockchain adoption and experimenting.
• This initiative highlights the growing importance of blockchain technology worldwide and Hong Kong’s plan to become a crypto hub.
UK crypto staking legislation
• The UK treasury amended legislation enabling crypto staking services to be exempt from the rules of governing collective investment scheme.
• This supports our perspective that more regulatory clarity for crypto investors will come in 2025, helping to accelerate adoption.
Market Metrics | The Nasdaq Crypto Index™
This week was marked by a drawdown for crypto assets, with the NCI™ falling 4.7%. Still, year to date, the index only lags gold (+2.3%) in performance, reinforcing the “debasement trade” theory we presented in the last Hash Insider.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from December 31, 2024 to January 12, 2025).
It was a red week for all NCI™ components, with XRP (+6.1%) being the lone exception. Potential drivers of this negative performance include better-than-expected US payroll data, which might suggest higher inflation in the future, a traditionally bearish driver for short-term price action.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from January 05, 2025 to January 12, 2025).
Market Metrics | Indices tracked by Hashdex
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Vinter (from January 12, 2024 to January 12, 2025).
After one year, BTC ETFs in the US have reached $660B in trading volume; the UK and Hong Kong are making progress in crypto adoption and regulation
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