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Platinum and Palladium: Price Corrections Bring Opportunity



Platinum and Palladium: Price Corrections Bring Opportunity

ETFS Research Note Platinum and Palladium: Price Corrections Bring Opportunity. Platinum and palladium prices have fallen sharply over the past weeks, with platinum now trading more than 10% below its estimated marginal cost of production. While this doesn’t mean that prices couldn’t fall further in the near-term on US dollar strength, with demand from the auto industry picking up and supply constrained by a structural decline in mine supply, we believe platinum and palladium prices have dropped to levels that are potentially highly attractive for long-term investors. As US demand continues to expand and China growth rebounds on aggressive monetary easing, we believe these metals have the potential to rebound strongly in the latter part of this year and 2015.

Demand for palladium has picked up

While platinum demand from China has been subdued recently, demand for palladium has picked up sharply on the back of a recovery in the auto market. Given the extensive use of platinum and palladium for vehicle emission control devices, their demand tends to be particularly sensitive to economic, industrial and market conditions at global level. With the US economy staging an impressive rebound, we expect demand for PGMs to also increase, in turn offsetting the negative effect of the strong US Dollar.

PGM supply remains constrained. Over 1moz of platinum and 700koz of palladium (equivalent to 17% and 8% of 2013 platinum and palladium supply respectively) have been taken off the market due to the 5-month long strike in South Africa at the beginning of the year. With Russia accounting for 13% of platinum mine supply and 40% of palladium primary production, supply disruptions in Russia have the potential to substantially tighten the markets.

We remain positive on the fundamentals of platinum and palladium and believe that prices will rebound. Large supply deficits are expected in both markets this year and the recent pick up in global auto sales is likely to exacerbate the situation further. With platinum marginal cost of production close to US$1,400oz (12% above current prices) and prices close to or below pre-strike levels, we see excellent value in both metals.


Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

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