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Dogecoin in a portfolio: A small 1% allocation has a loud bark!
Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.
Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.
Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.
With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.
Bear Case
Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.
Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.
Neutral Case
Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.
At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.
Bull Case
If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.
In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Den amerikanska centralbanken Federal Reserve sänkte räntorna med 0,25 % i veckan– men vad kan det betyda för den amerikanska aktiemarknaden?
Detta diagram följer S&P 500-indexet (orange linje) mot amerikanska räntor (blå linje) sedan 1990-talet.
Här är vad som hände med aktierna de senaste gångerna Fed började sänka räntorna från tidigare ränte”toppar”:
• 1995: aktierna steg (före dotcom-bubblan).
• 2000: aktierna föll (dotcom-bubblan sprack).
• 2007: ytterligare en björnmarknad (före finanskrisen 2008).
• 2019: aktierna steg först (sedan föll de in i Covid-kraschen 2020).
Fyra av fem gånger sammanföll räntesänkningarna med stora nedgångar. Men orsakerna var alltid olika. Korrelation innebär inte kausalitet.
Och nu, 2024/25, befinner vi oss i en ny sänkningscykel. Aktierna sjönk med cirka 20 % i början av 2025, men har sedan dess stigit till nya toppar. Frågan är, vad händer härnäst?
IncomeShares S&P500 Options (0DTE) ETP har exponering mot S&P 500 och säljer dagliga säljoptioner för potentiell inkomst.
Följ IncomeShares EU för marknadsinsikter.
HANetfs VD kommenterar kärnkraftsavtalet mellan Storbritannien och USA
WMSE ETF en global momentumfond som handlas i euro och pund
Federal Reserve sänkte räntorna med 0,25 %
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HANetfs analyserar hur ett fredsavtal kan påverka det europeiska försvaret
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Septembers utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande
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Nyheter4 veckor sedanHANetfs analyserar hur ett fredsavtal kan påverka det europeiska försvaret
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Nyheter4 veckor sedanADLT ETF investerar bara i riktigt långa amerikanska statsobligationer
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Nyheter2 veckor sedanSeptembers utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande
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Nyheter4 veckor sedanFastställd utdelning i MONTDIV augusti 2025
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Nyheter4 veckor sedanAICT ETF investerar i obligationer utgivna av företag från tillväxtmarknader
