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Are Gold Mining Equities Regaining Attention Amid Rising Gold Prices?
The investment environment in 2025 has been marked by increased uncertainty, including evolving trade dynamics involving the U.S. and rising geopolitical risks, which have weighed on overall market sentiment. Notably, though, gold has shone, surging past the symbolic $3,100 per ounce mark for the first time in history.
Gold has recently gained attention as investors seek potential hedges against rising inflation, currency fluctuations, and broader market volatility. Historical data suggests that both gold and gold mining equities have sometimes outperformed during periods of market stress, though such outcomes are not guaranteed and may vary depending on broader macroeconomic dynamics. The chart below displays historical episodes where gold and gold mining equities experienced relative strength during market corrections. However, such past performance should not be interpreted as a reliable indicator of future results.
Source: VanEck, World Gold Council.
The early months of 2025 have seen a resurgence in gold mining stock interest, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) receiving significant capital inflows. These flows reflect changing investor sentiment but should not be viewed as a guarantee of future returns.
Improved management
While gold mining stocks are a play on the gold price, they are much more than that. In the past, gold mining companies indulged in wanton value destruction. During gold’s last bull market that ended in 2011, mining companies borrowed heavily to fund new developments and extract gold from low quality mines. After the gold price dropped, they were forced to announce write-downs.
But since then, they have learned to keep costs under control. Indeed, for more than 10 years gold mining companies’ costs have grown by far less than a gold price that’s at least doubled. Despite the sharp rise in gold prices, especially in post 2020, miners have lagged significantly, likely reflecting ongoing capital and operating challenges noted between 2011 and 2015. This divergence may suggest a potential value opportunity if mining equities eventually re-rate closer to gold’s performance. Nevertheless, this is an assumption and may not turn out to be true, as structural issues or market dynamics could continue to weigh on miners’ valuations.
Gold Miner Premium/Discount to Gold
Source: Scotiabank. Data as February 2025.
Gold miners are expanding their profit margins, generating cash and embarking on share buy backs. What’s more, many have strong balance sheets. Yet still they trade at valuations below historical averages. Valuation metrics such as price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios remain below the 12-month moving average.
Valuations are Still Below Long-Term Averages
Source: Morningstar data.
Gold miners differentiate from gold because they are operating businesses influenced by company-specific factors such as management decisions, production efficiency, regulatory environments, and geopolitical risks. While gold is a passive asset driven by macroeconomic trends, miners add an additional layer of exposure to operational performance and cost structures.
A supportive macro backdrop
The performance of gold mining stocks is naturally influenced by the trajectory of gold prices. From a macroeconomic standpoint, factors such as inflation concerns and central bank policies continue to shape a cautiously optimistic outlook for gold, although the asset remains subject to volatility. Central banks continue to be net buyers, with 2023 marking a record year in terms of official sector demand. This trend has extended into 2024 and early 2025, underscoring institutional confidence in gold as a long-term store of value.
At the same time, the unfolding trade war is contributing to a more volatile global environment. These developments could support the case for gold and, by extension, gold mining equities. Moreover, recent efforts to improve transparency around global gold reserves, including audits of holdings in Fort Knox and London, have added credibility to the market, potentially reducing the perceived risk premium for miners.
Valuable portfolio diversification
From an investor’s perspective, gold mining stocks can be a useful diversifier in a broader equity portfolio, especially at a time of uncertainty for equity markets. Historically, gold mining stocks have exhibited a high sensitivity to changes in the price of gold, sometimes outperforming the metal itself during prolonged bull markets. However, they also tend to underperform during downturns, reflecting their leveraged exposure to gold price movements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The table below shows the low correlation of the two VanEck gold miners UCITS ETFs with the MSCI World Index of global stock prices. This low correlation suggests that gold mining ETFs may perform differently than global equities, potentially helping to reduce overall portfolio volatility during periods of market stress. That said, they also carry equity-like risks, and investors should assess their portfolio objectives and risk tolerance accordingly.
Low Price Correlations with Stocks
| Investment | MSCI World | Gold Price | VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | VanEck Gold Miners ETF |
| MSCI World | 1.00 | |||
| Gold Price | 0.10 | 1.00 | ||
| VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | 0.38 | 0.76 | 1.00 | |
| VanEck Gold Miners ETF | 0.31 | 0.81 | 0.96 | 1.00 |
Source: Morningstar data.
A better way to play the rally?
When the VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF was introduced in 2015, it aimed to provide investors with a way to gain diversified exposure to gold mining equities. Early performance was tempered by concerns related to past capital discipline within the sector. Recent inflows into ETF may reflect renewed investor interest, although sentiment toward mining equities can remain sensitive to market and operational developments.
As gold glitters at a time of market volatility, there are good reasons to think gold miners may be a better way to play the rally. It should however be noted that while gold prices and mining companies are closely linked, investing in miners introduces additional layers of risk and complexity and investors should consider all the risk factors before investing.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This is marketing communication. Please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS and to the KID/KIID before making any final investment decisions. These documents are available in English and the KIDs/KIIDs in local languages and can be obtained free of charge at www.vaneck.com, from VanEck Asset Management B.V. (the “Management Company”) or, where applicable, from the relevant appointed facility agent for your country.
For investors in Switzerland: VanEck Switzerland AG, with registered office in Genferstrasse 21, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland, has been appointed as distributor of VanEck´s products in Switzerland by the Management Company. A copy of the latest prospectus, the Articles, the Key Information Document, the annual report and semi-annual report can be found on our website www.vaneck.com or can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: Zeidler Regulatory Services (Switzerland) AG, Neudtadtgasse 1a, 8400 Winterthur, Switzerland. Swiss paying agent: Helvetische Bank AG, Seefeldstrasse 215, CH-8008 Zürich.
For investors in the UK: This is a marketing communication targeted to FCA regulated financial intermediaries. Retail clients should not rely on any of the information provided and should seek assistance from an IFA for all investment guidance and advice. VanEck Securities UK Limited (FRN: 1002854) is an Appointed Representative of Sturgeon Ventures LLP (FRN: 452811), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, to distribute VanEck´s products to FCA regulated firms such as Independent Financial Advisors (IFAs) and Wealth Managers.
This information originates from VanEck (Europe) GmbH, which is authorized as an EEA investment firm under MiFID under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFiD). VanEck (Europe) GmbH has its registered address at Kreuznacher Str. 30, 60486 Frankfurt, Germany, and has been appointed as distributor of VanEck products in Europe by the Management Company. The Management Company is incorporated under Dutch law and registered with the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM).
”The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk for any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”), expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, noninfringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.”
This material is only intended for general and preliminary information and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. VanEck (Europe) GmbH and its associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision on the basis of this information. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) but not necessarily those of VanEck. Opinions are current as of the publication date and are subject to change with market conditions. Information provided by third party sources is believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed.
VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF (the ”ETF”) is a sub-fund of VanEck UCITS ETFs plc, an open-ended variable capital umbrella investment company with limited liability between sub-funds. The ETF is registered with the Central Bank of Ireland, passively managed and tracks an equity index. Investing in the ETF should be interpreted as acquiring shares of the ETF and not the underlying assets.
VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF (the ”ETF”) is a sub-fund of VanEck UCITS ETFs plc, an open-ended variable capital umbrella investment company with limited liability between sub-funds. The ETF is registered with the Central Bank of Ireland, passively managed and tracks an equity index. Investing in the ETF should be interpreted as acquiring shares of the ETF and not the underlying assets.
Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors must buy and sell units of the UCITS on the secondary market via a an intermediary (e.g. a broker) and cannot usually be sold directly back to the UCITS. Brokerage fees may incur. The buying price may exceed, or the selling price may be lower than the current net asset value. The indicative net asset value (iNAV) of the UCITS is available on Bloomberg. The Management Company may terminate the marketing of the UCITS in one or more jurisdictions. The summary of the investor rights is available in English at: complaints-procedure.pdf (vaneck.com). For any unfamiliar technical terms, please refer to ETF Glossary | VanEck.
No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
© VanEck (Europe) GmbH ©VanEck Switzerland AG © VanEck Securities UK Limited
- HANetf har lanserat världens första Indo-Stillahavs-försvars-ETF.
- Den nya ETFen investerar i försvars-, flyg- och säkerhetsföretag baserade i Indien, Japan, Sydkorea, Taiwan och andra – exklusive Kina.
- Svarar på stort portföljgap: Indo-Stillahavs-exponeringen i UCITS globala försvars-ETFer är i genomsnitt endast 3,55 %.
- Kompletterar HANetfs NATO-ETF på 2,8 miljarder dollar och 8RMY-ETF på 160 miljoner euro – HANetf har nu Europas mest kompletta utbud av försvars-ETFer.
- Fångar den långsiktiga upprustningstrend i viktiga Indo-Stillahavs-demokratier.
HANetf, Europas första och ledande white-label UCITS ETF och ETC-plattform, är glada att kunna meddela att de har lanserat Future of Defence Indo-Pacific ex-China UCITS ETF (ticker: ASWJ).
Den nya ETFen kommer att ge riktad exponering mot börsnoterade företag inom försvar, flyg- och rymdindustrin i Indien och Stillahavsområdet. Den kommer att komplettera HANetfs befintliga utbud, vilket inkluderar Future of Defence UCITS ETF (ticker: ASWC) – som nu överstiger 2,8 miljarder dollar i förvaltat kapital (AUM) – och Future of European Defence UCITS ETF (ticker: 8RMY), med över 160 miljoner euro i AUM. Med denna expansion kommer HANetf att erbjuda investerare den mest omfattande uppsättningen verktyg i Europa för att få tillgång till försvar.
Precis som i Europa genomgår Indo-Stillahavsområdet en betydande förändring i sin försvarsposition. Vid den senaste Shangri-La-dialogen i Singapore uppmanade USA:s försvarsminister Pete Hegseth Amerikas asiatiska allierade att följa Europas exempel i fråga om upprustning. ”Nato-medlemmarna lovar att spendera 5 procent av sin BNP på försvar – till och med Tyskland”, noterade han och betonade omfattningen av Europas senaste militära förändring.
I takt med att nationer i Indo-Stillahavsområdet står inför liknande geopolitiska risker ökar regeringar från Indien och Japan till Sydkorea och Taiwan inte bara försvarsbudgetarna, utan påskyndar också lokaliseringen av militärproduktion och minskar beroendet av utländsk import.
Viktiga regionala dynamiker inkluderar:
- Indien riktar 75 procent av sin försvarskapitalbudget till inhemska tillverkare.
- Japan inleder sin största militära uppbyggnad sedan 1950-talet, inklusive lättnader av exportrestriktionerna och ett mål på 2 procent av BNP för försvarsutgifter till 2027.
- Sydkorea expanderar sin försvarsexport med målet att erövra 5 procent av den globala vapenmarknaden till 2027.
- Taiwan ökar sin försvarsbudget med nästan 50 procent sedan 2015, inklusive investeringar i inhemsk drönar- och antidrönarteknik.
Många försvarsinvesterare saknar dock exponering mot detta. HANetf analyserade exponeringen mellan Indien och Stillahavsområdet för varje europeiskt noterad UCITS-ETF med ett globalt försvarsuppdrag. Resultaten pekar på en lucka:
Som diagrammet visar är exponeringen mot försvarsaktier i Indo-Stillahavsområdet begränsad i Europanoterade globala försvars-ETFer. Den genomsnittliga allokeringen för varje ETF ligger på endast 3,55 procent, med en median på 3 procent. För en så viktig region kan detta potentiellt representera ett betydande gap i många investerares portföljer.
Exponering mot amerikanska och europeiska försvarsföretag är fortfarande avgörande, särskilt med tanke på de ökande utgifterna från NATO-medlemmar. Men portföljer som domineras av västerländska innehav kanske inte helt återspeglar den strukturella upprustningshistorien som utspelar sig i Indo-Stillahavsområdet.
I takt med att den strategiska vikten av global säkerhet fortsätter att förskjutas österut, kan investerare vilja överväga om deras portföljer är i linje med denna långsiktiga geopolitiska omvandling.
Hector McNeil, medgrundare och VD för HANetf, kommenterade: ”Indo-Stillahavsområdet håller snabbt på att bli tyngdpunkten för global geopolitik. Från Taiwansundet till Sydkinesiska havet, från gränskonflikter i Himalaya till uppkomsten av nya allianser som AUKUS och Quad, ligger denna region i centrum för 2000-talets säkerhetsutmaningar. Lanseringen av Future of Defence Indo-Pacific ex-China UCITS ETF (ASWJ) återspeglar vårt engagemang för att erbjuda investerare exakt, framåtblickande exponering mot de regioner och sektorer som omformar det geopolitiska landskapet. Med ASWJ fyller vi ett kritiskt gap i europeiska portföljer – och ger tillgång till försvarsuppbyggnaden i viktiga demokratier i Indo-Stillahavsområdet. Denna lansering cementerar HANetfs position som Europas mest omfattande plattform för att få tillgång till det globala försvarstemat.”
| Börs | Kortnamn | RIC | SEDOL | Valuta |
| London Stock Exchange (UK) | QUAD LN | HAQUAD.L | BNYD124 | USD |
| London Stock Exchange (UK) | ADEF LN | ADEF.L | BNYD113 | GBP |
| Xetra (Tyskland) | ASWJ GY | ASWJ.DE | BRXXSY4 | EUR |
Handla ASWJ ETF
Future of Defence Indo-Pacific ex-China UCITS ETF (ticker: ASWJ) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Paris. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Handla 8RMY ETF
Future of European Defence UCITS ETF (ticker: 8RMY) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Paris. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Handla ASWC ETF
HANetf Future of Defence UCITS ETF (ASWC ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
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