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Trump fade represents a commodities buying opportunity

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8 år sedan

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commodity prices, leading to a significant unwinding of exceptionally high speculative positioning. Trump fade represents a commodities buying opportunity

The political worries in the US, with President Trump looking increasingly isolated, and broad tightening of monetary conditions in China has been detrimental to commodity prices, leading to a significant unwinding of exceptionally high speculative positioning. Trump fade represents a commodities buying opportunity

CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) positioning data had highlighted commodities reaching a peak bullishness sentiment end-February 2017, as expressed in our February blog. Since then, due to the aforementioned issues, this bullish sentiment has unwound considerably, remaining just above it’s long-term average balance between bull and bears.

Commodity speculators became very bullish after the Republican win in November with the promise of a US$1tr spend in infrastructure over the next 10 years. Recent press reports highlight that this spend is likely to include US$200bn from Federal Funds with the remaining being investment incentives for US$800bn from the private sector and local governments. It is becoming evident from press reports that the US$200bn will likely begin to be delivered in late 2018, whilst the additional US$800bn is very much uncertain due to it being at the discretion of the private sector and local governments. As investors have begun to realise that much of this spending will be delayed and potentially at much lower levels, it has contributed to this speculative unwind.

Another contributor to the deteriorating sentiment has been tightening policy and weakening economic growth in China. Although we see evidence of stabilising growth in China, in recent years official growth data appears smoothed to some extent, our growth proxy, using freight volumes, electricity output, traffic volumes and retail sales suggest that growth in recent years has probably been overstated, although it looks to be improving despite the recent tightening of policy. The “Belt and Road” strategy recently announced by President Xi Jinping suggests a continued commitment to its US$150bn spend on infrastructure.

More broadly in Emerging Markets (EM), in contrast to China, we are seeing Libor rates gradually decline as inflation eases, helping boost economic growth. The Emerging Market LEI (Leading Economic Indicator) leads commodity prices by 6 months with a high historic correlation, rises in the LEI imply that the recent commodity price weakness is temporary.

We continue to believe that the fundamentals of increasing supply-side destruction, attractive valuations and buoyant demand for commodities remain intact. The Trump debacles have prompted a much needed speculative unwind, and in our view, recent price weakness represent a buying opportunity. We continue to see industrial metals as offering the best upside in the coming 12 months.

James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities

James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments.

James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.

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Bitcoin likes to dance to its own beat, not to tech stock tunes

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18 timmar sedan

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4 augusti, 2025

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With US Big Tech earnings in, Bitcoin is back in the spotlight. At times, it moves in sync with tech stocks, prompting some to refer to it as a “high-beta Nasdaq proxy.” But Bitcoin is more than a tech proxy as it behaves like a growth asset in bull markets and a hedge during periods of uncertainty.

With US Big Tech earnings in, Bitcoin is back in the spotlight. At times, it moves in sync with tech stocks, prompting some to refer to it as a “high-beta Nasdaq proxy.” But Bitcoin is more than a tech proxy as it behaves like a growth asset in bull markets and a hedge during periods of uncertainty.

US investors, please take note: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are now more efficient

Good news for the US crypto industry: a new rule is making crypto ETFs more flexible and efficient. Last week, the SEC approved “in-kind creation and redemption” for crypto ETFs, including those tracking Bitcoin and Ethereum. What does that mean in simple terms? Let’s break it down.

Uniswap is booming: Here’s why everyone’s talking about it

Uniswap, the project that helped launch the era of decentralized exchanges (DEXs), is making waves again. The reason? Its latest upgrade is hitting major milestones and turning heads across the crypto space.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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EUP0 ETF är en globalfond som investerar i företag som minskar växthusgasintensiteten

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19 timmar sedan

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4 augusti, 2025

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Ossiam Bloomberg World PAB UCITS ETF 1A (EUR) (EUP0 ETF) med ISIN IE000IVQPCG4, försöker följa Bloomberg PAB Developed Market-index. Bloomberg PAB Developed Market-index spårar aktier från utvecklade marknader över hela världen. Indexet syftar till att minska växthusgasintensiteten med minst 50 procent jämfört med investeringsuniversumet (Bloomberg Developed Market index) och med i genomsnitt minst 7 procent per år.

Ossiam Bloomberg World PAB UCITS ETF 1A (EUR) (EUP0 ETF) med ISIN IE000IVQPCG4, försöker följa Bloomberg PAB Developed Market-index. Bloomberg PAB Developed Market-index spårar aktier från utvecklade marknader över hela världen. Indexet syftar till att minska växthusgasintensiteten med minst 50 procent jämfört med investeringsuniversumet (Bloomberg Developed Market index) och med i genomsnitt minst 7 procent per år.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. Ossiam Bloomberg World PAB UCITS ETF 1A (EUR) är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg PAB Developed Market index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Ossiam Bloomberg World PAB UCITS ETF 1A (EUR) är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 98 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Handla EUP0 ETF

Ossiam Bloomberg World PAB UCITS ETF 1A (EUR) (EUP0 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

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Strategy (tidigare MicroStrategy) rapporterade en rekordvinst

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20 timmar sedan

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4 augusti, 2025

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Strategy (tidigare MicroStrategy) rapporterade en rekordvinst per aktie i förra veckan– och det kom inte från mjukvaruförsäljning.

Strategy (tidigare MicroStrategy) rapporterade en rekordvinst per aktie i förra veckan– och det kom inte från mjukvaruförsäljning.

  • Under första kvartalet 2025 var resultatet per aktie (EPS) –16,49 dollar.
  • Under andra kvartalet hoppade den till +32,60 dollar: en svängning på 49 dollar på tre månader.

I januari antog Strategy nya redovisningsregler (FASB fair value accounting) som kräver att de värderar sina bitcoininnehav till marknadsvärde varje kvartal.

Det betyder att alla bitcoinprisförändringar visas som vinst eller förlust – även om de inte säljer ett enda mynt.

Bitcoinpriset sjönk med cirka 12 % under första kvartalet och steg med cirka 30 % under andra kvartalet.

Idag innehar Strategy 628 791 bitcoin – det är tre (3) av det totala utbudet på 21 miljoner.

Diagrammet visar hur den procentandelen har stigit sedan deras första bitcoinköp i augusti 2020 – för nästan fem år sedan just nu.

IncomeShares MicroStrategy Options ETP säljer optioner på MSTR-aktier i syfte att generera månatlig inkomst.

Den kan också ha en viss exponering mot aktien beroende på marknadsförhållandena.

✨ Följ IncomeShares EU för insikter.

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