Commodity ETP Weekly – Risk aversion sees oil and gold prices diverge
Brent trades at its biggest discount to WTI.
Gold safe haven status reignited.
Coffee ETPs receive their highest inflows since July 2015.
- Bargain hunters continue to drive flows into energy ETPs, extending last year’s trend for a second week in 2016 despite the oil price slide.
- Gold ETPs flows hit 9-week high at the start of 2016 as uncertainty over global markets looms.
- Coffee ETPs flows garner momentum after International Coffee Organisation raised estimates for global production shortfall.
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Brent trades at its biggest discount to WTI. WTI and Brent crude oil prices have fallen to fresh 12-year lows below US$29/bbl this week. Brent, the North Sea crude used as an international benchmark, has fallen faster than WTI and is trading at its biggest discount to the US benchmark since 2010. The lifting of oil sanctions against Iran this weekend mounted pressure on Brent prices as investors contemplated the effects of rising Iranian exports in an already over supplied oil market. Despite the precipitous oil slide, bargain hunters remained undeterred, driving inflows of US $26.9mn into long Brent ETPs – the highest level since February last year and inflows US $45.6mn in long WTI crude ETPs are at the highest level in 8 weeks.
Gold safe haven status reignited. Gold ETPs recorded their highest inflows in 9 weeks , amounting to US $17.6mn. We believe the simplest explanation for this has been the global stock market rout, exacerbated by Friday’s oil price declines, which renewed gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset. Another key point to highlight is the ripple effect that a lower sticky inflation outlook could have on the Fed’s ability to raise rates in the US this year. Persistently low oil prices could lower the future rate profile compared to the current FOMC dot plot, encouraging a weaker dollar and thereby making gold priced in dollars cheaper to buy. By virtue of oil being a vital part of inflation forces, and given the recent oil price slide subsequent lower inflation would also reduce the need for gold as a hedge against inflation. However, in the current environment, gold’s defensive properties are driving price performance. Gold has posted gains of 1.43% last week highlighting gold’s resilience at a time when market uncertainty is at the highest levels since the global equity correction in September 2015.
Coffee ETPs receive their highest inflows since July 2015. ETFS Coffee (COFF) recorded flows of US$3.5mn after the International Coffee Organisation (ICO) hiked estimates for the global production shortfall this season held back by a weaker harvest in Brazil. In its forecast for the output for 2015-16, the ICO expects the first growth in production in three years. Nonetheless, the ICO forecast a deficit for a third successive season.
Key events to watch this week. After a torrid week in financial markets all eyes will be glued on China’s GDP report due to be released on Tuesday for any signs of respite from the ongoing sell off. Friday sees the release of the US inflation data, a key ingredient to the FOMC’s rate policy formulation and the USD, a key driver of commodity prices. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and consensus remains for rates to be left unchanged. The Canadian Dollar’s decline to a 12-year low coupled with sliding oil prices may force the Bank of Canada to take further action when they meet on Wednesday.
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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
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