Quantum computing and Bitcoin: what allocators actually need to know

Noise around quantum computing risks and Bitcoin has surged in recent months, prompting us to publish Quantum Computers Can’t Break Bitcoin Yet – a full briefing for asset allocators on what quantum computing does (and does not) mean for digital assets. The risk is real but long-dated, the networks are already responding faster than most realise, and our long-term conviction in the asset class is firmly intact. As co-author and Global Head of Research Eliézer Ndinga puts it:

”We wrote this paper because quantum computing is one of the most consequential questions facing digital asset allocators today – and most of the coverage has generated more heat than light. At 21shares, our mission goes beyond making this asset class accessible: it is to ensure investors can navigate it with clarity and confidence. We hope this report provides exactly that.”

As you read through the full report, it’s worth keeping in mind:

• The threat is real but not imminent. Expert timelines run from the early 2030s to beyond 2040, and no machine capable of such an attack exists today.

• The response is already well underway. Bitcoin took its first formal step in February toward a quantum-resistant address format; Ethereum has working code and multiple independent teams building toward migration; Solana has a practical recovery path. This is a multi-year, trackable migration.

• Crucially, the advantage sits with those who understand the timeline. The market isn’t yet differentiating networks, exchanges and custodians on readiness, and the ones moving earliest carry lower structural risk, a distinction most frameworks don’t yet reflect.

• It’s worth scoping the fear, too. Quantum does not threaten settled transaction history, the security of Bitcoin mining, or the encryption protecting stored data. The challenge is confined to the signatures that prove ownership – a well-understood and solvable problem.

Bitcoin is a long-term store of value – and the data reflects that. Bitcoin’s near-50% retreat from its October 2025 all-time high is partly attributable to this noise, however, BTC held by ETFs globally is reaching all-time highs. Investors aren’t selling into weakness – they’re accumulating through it.

The full report covers where exposure actually sits, the realistic timeline, and the specific questions to put to your custodians and providers. We’re happy to walk through the implications for your portfolio.

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If you have any questions or want to discuss a product in detail, please visit our website at www.21shares.com

Research Newsletter

Each month the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.