We’re halfway through 2026 – and it’s time to take stock.
In December, we published ten predictions for the crypto market this year. Six months in, we’re revisiting each of them in our State of crypto 2026: mid-year update – a clear-eyed look at where each thesis still stands, what’s landed ahead of schedule, and what still has time to play out. Join us for a live discussion on Wednesday 1 July at 4:00 PM CET, which will also provide an update on the broader market environment.
New report available now
Our overarching prediction was that 2026 would be the year crypto made the shift from narrative to fundamentals. The picture is more nuanced than we anticipated.
Two predictions are landing ahead of schedule: Prediction markets have recorded $57.5 billion in traded volume through May – more than half our $100 billion full-year target, and over ten times the same period last year. With the World Cup underway and US midterms in November, the second half has plenty of fuel.
• Our call that most Layer 2s would not survive 2026 has landed – and was endorsed in February by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who declared the rollup-centric roadmap ”no longer makes sense.”
The rest – tokenized commodities, pre-IPO markets, stablecoin adoption – are delayed, not derailed. There’s a lot to unpack. Download the full report for our complete analysis.
Ask your questions on the webinar
On Wednesday 1 July at 4:00 PM CET, join our Head of Macro Stephen Coltman, Chief Investment Strategist Adrian Fritz, and Global Head of Research Eliézer Ndinga for a live discussion of the report – covering their key takeaways, current market conditions, and our outlook for the second half of 2026.
When: Wednesday 1 July, 4PM CET
Program: Mid-year market update followed by live Q&A.
Where: via Zoom webinar – register below!
Best regards,
The 21shares team
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Research Newsletter
Each month the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
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The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
