It’s been a busy 24 hours. Get the big Picture

We’re bringing you this update outside our regular newsletter schedule, as these dynamics are converging in real time: A clearer hawkish tilt at the Federal Reserve, elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and tighter liquidity conditions are collectively reshaping near-term pricing and market behavior.

The overnight selloff reflected a global macro repricing rather than a crypto-specific shock. Risk and defensive assets sold off in tandem (equities, commodities, and digital assets), pointing to broad de-risking driven by policy and geopolitical uncertainty rather than a deterioration in underlying fundamentals.

This adjustment was reinforced Friday morning by President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Widely viewed as more hawkish, Warsh’s nomination prompted markets to reassess assumptions about future liquidity and dollar debasement, weighing on liquidity-sensitive assets and inflation hedges that had been priced for a more accommodative backdrop.

At the same time, rising geopolitical risk – particularly around Iran – has lifted risk premiums across markets. Historically, similar geopolitical shocks have resulted in 4-8% drawdowns within 48 hours, followed by rebounds averaging ~22.75% within 30 days, suggesting January’s move fits a familiar corrective pattern rather than a regime shift.

Stay tuned on Monday for an update.