ETFs in October: From Gold’s Rally to a New Age of Industrial Policy

After a relatively green September, October brought renewed market movement and a shift in focus across several key themes. This month, in this summary of our full-length newsletter, we shine a spotlight on gold, which has recently seen a surge in investor interest amid global uncertainties. Meanwhile, we explore how expansive government policy is driving new waves of industrial activity – whether through infrastructure investment, renewed naval orders, or evolving support for renewable energy.

Your VanEck Europe team wishes you a great read.

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Across the world, governments are reclaiming a central role in shaping economic direction – from green subsidies and infrastructure renewal to industrial policy and technological independence. In this piece, Martijn Rozemuller (CEO, VanEck Europe) explores how this new era of “big government” is redrawing the investment map: when public money leads, private profits can follow.

Fiscal spending and policy incentives are not just stabilizing tools; they can be catalysts for long-term transformation. Public investments in energy transition, digital infrastructure, and supply-chain resilience are creating fertile ground for private enterprise. Yet, as the author notes, success requires discernment – not every policy push translates neatly into profits.

World military expenditure, by region, 1988–2024

Note: The absence of data for the Soviet Union in 1991 means that no total can be calculated for that year. Source: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, Apr. 2025

For thematic investors, the takeaway is clear: understanding the link between state priorities and market opportunity is key. In an age where governments act as both regulator and investor, following the flow of public capital can reveal enduring sources of value.

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Gold’s Relentless Rally: Fundamentals and Renewed Investor Confidence

Gold’s renewed strength is being fueled by solid fundamentals and a wave of returning investor confidence. After years of consolidation, the metal has reasserted its role as a store of value in an uncertain macro environment – supported by lower real yields, steady central bank demand, and disciplined gold-miner performance.

Monetary easing and fiscal expansion are creating conditions that continue to favor hard assets. Central banks are diversifying reserves, while institutional investors are gradually rebuilding exposure after a long period of neglect. The result is a market driven less by short-term sentiment and more by structural forces that reinforce gold’s place in modern portfolios.

In this piece, learn more about what’s driving gold’s momentum and where the next opportunities may lie from our expert in gold markets.

However, potential risks always exist, as volatility remains quite unexpected and the changing central banks behavior can sometimes be unpredictable.

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Wave of New Orders Revitalizes Naval Shipyards

CBO’s Estimate of the Navy’s Total Budget Under Its 2024 and 2025 Plans (Billons of 2024 dollars)

Source: CBO (Congressional Budget Office), An Analysis of the Navy’s 2025 Shipbuilding Plan, January 2025, www.cbo.gov/publication/60732

A surge in naval contracts is breathing new life into shipyards that had long struggled with under-utilization and fading demand. As countries expand and modernize their fleets, orders for new vessels are reviving capacity, attracting fresh investment, and driving technological upgrades across the maritime supply chain.

This resurgence extends beyond shipbuilders themselves. Rising defense budgets and heightened geopolitical tensions are energizing a broad ecosystem of component suppliers, maintenance providers, and engineering firms. The result is a renewed industrial base where maritime security and economic strategy align.

Still, this momentum is not without risks, from potential supply-chain bottlenecks to shifting geopolitical priorities.

This renewed wave of spending underscores how strategic priorities can create durable business momentum – particularly in sectors where capacity, innovation, and policy converge.

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Nuclear Energy: Opportunities and Risks

Uranium Price, $/lb

Source: Cameco, UxC. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

The revival of nuclear power is gathering momentum, driven by rising clean-energy demand, energy-security pressures and technological advancement. Reactors that produce zero emissions and operate reliably around the clock are once again gaining attention as part of the global transition.

On the opportunity side

• Expanding capacity in established and emerging markets, including interest in new types of reactors and services.

• Supply-chain constraints in uranium, enrichment and reactor construction suggest structural tailwinds for firms involved in the ecosystem.

• Institutional and policy backing is strengthening, offering a clearer runway for companies in mining, engineering, construction and upgrades.

On the risk side

• The scale, complexity and regulatory burden of nuclear-project delivery remain high – cost overruns, delays and technological execution are real challenges.

• Waste management, long asset‐lifespans and public perception issues continue to weigh.

• Even as the narrative strengthens, sector exposure remains cyclical and sensitive to policy shifts, project timing and commodity supply bottlenecks.

The piece encourages to look beyond headline “clean energy” and consider how the nuclear value chain, from uranium mining to reactor services, may offer differentiated exposure.

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