April wrap-up: Bitcoin’s $79,500 – regime shift or bear rally?

Welcome to the first monthly edition of the State of Crypto, cutting through the noise and helping guide your investment decisions at the start of every month.

April saw bitcoin’s strongest monthly performance in over a year, rallying 12% to $79,500.

While $78,000 remains a stubborn resistance level, the underlying market structure suggests a fundamental shift: the market’s largest holders are treating this correction as a structural buying opportunity.

BITCOIN IN THE MACRO BACKDROP

• Risk–on rebound: A recovery in tech and AI spilled into crypto, giving BTC the momentum to climb from $69,000.

• Policy and energy: With the Strait of Hormuz closed and energy–driven inflation sticking, markets now price in zero rate cuts for 2026.

• Patient capital: Institutional conviction is high. US spot ETFs absorbed $2.4 billion in April, while corporate treasuries – led by Strategy’s $2.5 billion purchase – are building a massive price floor.

MARKET DYNAMICS TO WATCH

• Flight to quality: Capital is slowly moving up the risk curve. Bitcoin dominance is at its highest since mid–2025 as investors favor blue chips over the DeFi sector, which has been hit by recent protocol exploits.

• Liquidity resilience: Stablecoin supply reached a record $321 billion. Unlike in prior cycles, when capital exited the market during dips, today’s dry powder is staying onchain.

• Miner health: Despite high energy costs, large–scale miners are accumulating BTC, signaling they expect higher prices ahead.

WHAT NOW?

The $74,400 zone has flipped from resistance to support. We are still waiting for a catalyst to clear the macro uncertainty, but the current consolidation looks more like a launchpad than a ceiling. A decisive weekly close above $78,000 would confirm a regime shift and open the path toward $85,000.

Get the full deep–dive: technical charts, an analysis of the ”mythos” AI effect, and our bull/bear scenario mapping for Q2.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: 21SHARES IN THE WORLD

Bitcoin ETFs and the $100,000 question

21shares Chief Investment Strategist Adrian Fritz spoke with CoinDesk about the nearly $2 billion in spot bitcoin ETF inflows year-to-date, calling it a sign of structural – not speculative – demand, and flagging $100,000 as a realistic year-end target if geopolitical conditions ease and inflows hold.

The Fed’s divided hold dampens bitcoin’s pivot hopes

Speaking to The Block, 21shares Senior Crypto Research Strategist Matt Mena weighed in on the Fed’s most split decision in over 30 years, arguing that hawkish dissenters threw cold water on the market’s rate-cut expectations heading into the Warsh era.

Warsh inherits a fractured Fed

21shares Head of Macro Stephen Coltman told Axios that Warsh will struggle to build a rate-cut majority at the FOMC so long as core PCE stays above 3%, noting that Wednesday’s dissents sent an early and unambiguous signal of the internal resistance ahead.

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Research Newsletter

Each month the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

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The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.