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The Road to POL and Elections Excitement: What Happened in Crypto This Week?
• Crypto Recovers As U.S. Elections Excitement Escalates
• Realizing the “Internet of Blockchains” Vision with Polygon 2.0
Crypto Recovers As U.S. Elections Excitement Escalates
U.S. inflation cooled in June, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreasing by 0.1% and the annual rate at 3%. Following this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that while they won’t wait for inflation to hit 2%, more confidence is needed before cutting rates. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 90% probability of a 25-bps rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the excitement around the U.S. presidential elections has been the main market driver, overshadowing rate-cut hopes. On July 21, President Joe Biden announced he’d drop out of the elections, sparking a moderate rally in the crypto market.
On the other side of the aisle, Donald Trump has been turning heads with a series of moves deemed positive by the crypto market; the latest was naming JD Vance as a vice presidential nominee. When running for Senator in 2021, Vance disclosed he held $100K worth of Bitcoin. Additionally, Trump’s VP running mate has also been a big champion for crypto-friendly legislation as the Senator of Ohio, at times even defending decentralized protocols against the Securities and Exchanges Commission. After voicing his allegiance with the crypto industry and promising policies in its favor, it’s without a doubt that markets are excited about the prospects of Trump’s presidency, and the derivatives market confirms that. As shown in Figure 1, the Futures Open Interest (OI) on centralized exchanges picked up by 19% over the past week.
Figure 1 – Bitcoin Futures Open Interest
Source: Glassnode
Between July 14 and 21, Options OI increased by 28%, with more traders expecting prices to rise, as the put/call ratio stood at 0.45. Options traders are preparing for some heightened market movements; Trump is scheduled to speak on July 27 on the final day of the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville. There have been speculations that he could announce holding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset in his presidency. That is due to Bitcoin’s predetermined monetary policy with a fixed supply, bolstered by the fact that the U.S. government already holds 0.83% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.
What else can we expect this week? Most importantly, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) will be released on Friday and will provide insights into consumer spending behavior. This will be crucial as PCE is a key indicator that influences the Fed’s outlook on inflation.
Finally, the SEC has approved ETH Spot ETFs for trading in the U.S. With over eight regulated products now available, investors have more options to get exposure to the second-largest crypto asset by market cap. This approval enhances the credibility, acceptance, and confidence in the digital asset industry, potentially directing significant inflows into ETH—expected to be around 20% of what BTC ETFs have secured at best. Moreover, this development is expected to boost interest in the Ethereum ecosystem’s application layer, which includes DeFi primitives and a variety of decentralized applications that form the next generation of the internet-native permissionless economy. On their first trading day, spot Ethereum ETFs collectively registered $1.1 billion in total value traded, which is nearly 20% of the volume recorded on the inaugural trading day of BTC ETFs in January, amounting to $4.4B.
Realizing the “Internet of Blockchains” Vision with Polygon 2.0
Polygon is set to initiate its token migration, transitioning from MATIC to POL on September 4, 2024. This pivotal move follows months of discussions surrounding the Polygon 2.0 upgrade, which transforms the network from a basic Ethereum scaling side-chain into a versatile, interoperable network of scaling solutions. A major aspect of this upgrade is the creation of an ecosystem of interconnected networks utilizing Zero-Knowledge technology, with Polygon acting as the central layer connecting them. Additionally, the new architecture introduces an AggLayer, which offers a unified liquidity layer across all networks developed using Polygon’s Chain Development Kit (CDK). Check out our previous coverage here to have a better understanding of AggLayer.
Figure 2 – How the AggLayer Unifies Liquidity
Source: Polygon
To prepare for Polygon 2.0, the network’s foundation announced that MATIC will get upgraded to POL last October. However, the timeline for this migration remained unclear until last week. With the recent announcement, September 4 is the target date. This upgrade will see POL become the gas currency for interacting with the ecosystem, akin to ETH, as well as the staking token for users contributing to the validation of Polygon and its associated CDK-based chains. According to the foundation’s plan, MATIC on Polygon POS will be converted to POL, combined with staked MATIC on Ethereum mainnet, which will also be converted into POL. Thus, we expect to see a surge in the total percentage of converted tokens, which will jump from the current estimate of around 0.5%, as seen below, up to 50% following September 4.
Figure 3 – The Migration Progress of MATIC to POL Conversion
Source: 21co at Dune
In that view, POL will serve as a hyperproductive token, enhancing its functionality beyond merely securing a single network. It will also act as a re-staking token, validating the security of multiple networks. This expanded role will enable holders to engage in various capacities within the network, allowing them to earn diverse rewards linked to different services. For example, POL will play a key role within the AggLayer, although the specific nature of its involvement is yet to be determined, pending a community governance vote. Consequently, rewards may be tied to the security validation of all networks within the Polygon ecosystem in conjunction with the operations of the AggLayer.
What stands out, though, is the long-term strategy for POL. The foundation highlighted the potential for the token to facilitate block and ZK-proof generation and participation in data availability committees (DAC). This innovative approach could serve as a valuable blueprint for other scaling solutions, demonstrating how to unlock greater utility. For instance, consider Arbitrum and Optimism; the tokens for both networks have sparked controversy due to their high valuations, especially as they’re primarily limited as governance tokens. However, if they were to adopt Polygon’s proposed model, we might see both networks allow their tokens to be staked. This approach could foster greater community participation in the centralized sequencer operations, allowing anyone who stakes their tokens to take part in the process. This not only decentralizes a vital aspect of the network’s infrastructure but also mitigates the risk of a single point of failure.
This Week’s Calendar
Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
People have long joined clubs and social circles to talk about sports, politics, business, and more. As the internet evolved, social networking began complementing these physical spaces, offering a more accessible, democratized way to connect and exchange ideas.
As social media gained influence, it began to leave its mark on the financial world. In 2012, an internet community called “Wallstreet Bets” started on Reddit, focusing on bold, high-risk stock trading. But it wasn’t until 2020 that the term “meme stocks” was first coined.
What is a meme?
A meme is an idea, image, phrase, or cultural reference that spreads rapidly across the internet, often humorous or satirical. Memes evolve through social sharing and adaptation, shaping online discourse and trends.
In January 2021, Reddit users in the Wall Street Bets forum generated hype about GameStop (ticker: GME), a struggling video game retailer that hedge funds were heavily shorting. The buzz on Reddit drove the stock price of GameStop from $4.42 to $483 at its (intraday) peak on January 28, 2021. Though the hype faded, GME remains up 414.48% from its pre-surge price, marking a turning point in retail investing and online market movements.
What is a memecoin?
A memecoin is a cryptocurrency inspired by internet memes or viral trends. Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies focused on utility (like Bitcoin or Ethereum), memecoins thrive on community engagement, humor, and speculative momentum. Their low barriers to entry make them easy to create, trade, and experiment with, serving as an accessible gateway for newcomers to the crypto space.
Traditionally, when a meme or trend went viral, platforms like Instagram, Twitter, or Reddit captured the economic value, while the creators and communities driving the momentum saw little in return. Crypto changed that dynamic. With infrastructure that enables native asset ownership and online trading, individuals and communities can now participate in the upside of the culture they create.
Imagine subscribing to a YouTube creator before they blew up—and actually earning a share of their rise. That’s the future memecoins are starting to unlock.
From meme to mainstream: The evolution of memecoins
In 2013, software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer created Dogecoin (DOGE) as a lighthearted parody of the cryptocurrency craze, inspired by the popular “Doge” meme featuring a Shiba Inu dog. Despite its origins as a joke, Dogecoin quickly gained a dedicated community and achieved a market capitalization in the billions. This success paved the way for numerous other meme coins, blending internet culture with digital assets.
The memecoin sector burst into the mainstream in late 2024 and early 2025, propelled by a frenzy of token launches on Solana and headline moments like Donald Trump releasing his own coin. But not all tokens are created equal. Many of these newcomers were short-lived, extractive plays—designed to capture attention, extract liquidity, and disappear.
While they’ve stress-tested blockchains with massive trading volumes, they shouldn’t be mistaken for more established memecoins like Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE). These tokens are different. They’ve endured not because of hype cycles but because they represent something deeper: tokenized internet culture, forged through shared humor, sentiment, and identity.
What gives memecoins their intrinsic value?
In a world where financial worth is usually tied to revenue, utility, or technological innovation, memecoins are the outliers. They don’t rely on complex protocols or multi-year roadmaps—they thrive on cultural relevance.
Memes are the internet’s native language: they carry emotion, identity, and connection across borders. DOGE, launched in 2013, transformed a lighthearted Shiba Inu meme into a symbol of optimism and generosity. SHIB, born in 2020 as a self-declared “Dogecoin killer,” evolved into an expansive DeFi and NFT ecosystem with a devoted, youthful base. PEPE, emerging in 2023, captured the raw, viral energy of the “Pepe the Frog” meme and quickly gained traction. What unites them all is their ability to embed themselves in the internet’s cultural fabric—turning memes into enduring digital assets.
In the end, memecoins are more than the tokens themselves—they’re a bold experiment in redefining value in a digital world. They harness not just capital but also culture. Their deeper impact lies in showing that relevance, community, and shared culture can be powerful forms of value in their own right.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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